When does persistent opponent history earn a Security-owned OpponentModel?
Treat opponent state as a trigger-gated hypothesis: require held-out repeated encounters where history changes decisions beyond current observations and ordinary trajectory before adding durable strategic state.
01 / Current position
A hypothesis is not the current judgment.
The dossier preserves the live research position. Dated articles preserve the complete evidence and argument that changed it.
Persistent opponent history should be admitted only if exact prior encounters causally improve held-out decisions or recovery after controlling for current observations, ordinary trajectory, context capacity, and provider/model effects.
Open under the CA7 negative admission gate; no positive transfer standing exists. Earlier Round 1 evidence was mixed and did not establish causal held-out advantage, while CA6 handled deliberate Blue policy change using current consequences and replanning without a stored opponent hypothesis. CA7 therefore leaves persistent OpponentModel NOT ADMITTED and records opponent-history gain as one explicit reopen condition.
02 / Decision boundary
What keeps this Question alive?
A stored opponent model can preserve real strategic information, but it can also become descriptive overhead, memorization, or a second state system when current evidence already supports the same decision.
Do not run a transfer programme by roadmap inertia. Reopen only when repeated authorized encounters make opponent history a natural decision input; then compare transcript/current-observation baselines against exact compiled history on held-out opponents/worlds with memorization, evaluator, and Context-loss controls.
A reactive/current-observation policy or ordinary trajectory matches held-out decision quality, timing, information use, and recovery with lower durable state and maintenance cost.
03 / Supporting publications
Complete arguments connected to this Question.
1 dated publication currently document this research line.
04 / Source discipline
The dossier is an index, not the evidence authority.
Owns the current judgment, next test, and deletion condition.
Own complete dated arguments, limitations, comparisons, and source links.
Own exact code, tests, releases, receipts, and machine evidence.